Bob Young, CCIM, RIISnet EVP Business Development
Tough Times: Recent talk and press releases create a mood of negativism and fear. To be sure, the real 2008 numbers are down at a rate greater than most of us can even remember. And, 2009 is going to be tough, maybe tougher. What can any of us do? Look for the opportunity that is a part of every down cycle.
The government has already put $7 trillion into the financial system in the past year through all its available options, with more to come. The interest rate is effectively zero and gas is back under $2 per gallon. Still, the slowdown is draining sales, orders, jobs and retail spending. The question for the commercial real estate investment community is what to do with our assets and capital in the mean time? Drawing from many excellent sources available to our industry, here are trends we can expect to see (special thanks to CapLease and their 2009 Outlook):
Housing: Even very low interest rates and aggressive stimulus features will still have to work their way through the bad assets that got us here in the first place. Housing starts could take until year-end to start back up.
Consumer Spending: Personal balance sheets look as bad as the national banks that financed their over-borrowing. Consumer credit will be very tight and jobs will recover slowly, at least through the end of 2009.
© Real Capital Analytics, Inc. Data believed to be accurate but no guaranteed, subject to future revision, analyses based on properties and portfolios $10 million and greater. www.rcanalytics.com
Financial Markets: After Lehman put the “Bank” in Bankruptcy, we’ve had a series of shocks. Enter the government support that means, long-term, banks will pay more for their debt. Safety is the investor’s watch-word, or else “distressed assets”, where expected future returns would be higher if risk is taken. Yet, buyer’s offering cap rates imply tenant default rates over 30%, which no one believes will actually happen.
Banks: Don’t look now, but lending is UP. The Fed’s own data shows commercial loans up 15% in November, while home equity loans were up 21%. But that’s just to their existing customers, and only because these lines of credit were set up before the crisis. $4 trillion in commercial debt needs refinancing. We need the financial markets to securitize these loans and move them from the banks’ balance sheets.
What About Distressed Assets? The above chart shows the radical decline in stable asset deals in 2008. The first one shows year-over-year sales off 40% to 80% in every type of property and region. Globally, only the Middle East had a net gain in 2008 sales, but was cooling off at year’s end. Why would owners place their assets for sale in a market where buyers’ offers reflect a cap rate that discounts their income 30% or more? Default rates, though rising, should not approach those levels due to TARP and TALF programs.
The Distressed Asset chart paints an even more interesting picture. It shows the Real Capital Analytics’ estimate of $100 billion in 2009 assets somewhere along the pipeline of Potentially Troubled, to Troubled, to “REO”, when a lender has assumed ownership through foreclosure. Since many loans written in 2006 through 2008 used very aggressive lending criteria, expect even more “distress” when they come up for re-financing in today’s stricter environment. This is the time in the business cycle where more future wealth is secured than any other, because the circumstances of owners’ distress force lower prices and higher returns. That is why distressed or REO assets will emerge as an active market component in 2009.
Market Innovation: Look for solutions that align the supply of distressed assets with opportunistic buyer demand. This market sector will cycle up, then down, over the next three years, becoming potentially bigger in 2010 than the remaining or re-emerging stable asset market. Argus Software and RIISnet will keep its customers alerted to any technology that helps buyers, sellers and their brokers find the best vantage point in the market from which to understand these rapid changes. Meanwhile, be sure to monitor your Argus Transaction Zone assets and searches to develop your own view of the market. Keep your data handy, your capital ready, and know which kinds of distressed deals work best for your firm.