Edited: Jennifer Brenner Andrade
Source: Urban Land Institute
Real Estate and the Financial Crisis, a new publication from the Urban Land Institute, offers a comprehensive analysis of how turmoil in capital markets worldwide is restructuring real estate finance.
Written by highly acclaimed real estate finance expert and Brookings Institution Senior Fellow Anthony Downs,this timely book provides candid insights into what caused the financial market meltdown and the long-term consequences. Downs provides an insider’s view, examining public policy and the role of the Federal Reserve. He discusses ensuing policy recommendations for commercial and residential real estate lending, as well as scenarios for a new era in the financial sector.
Highlights include:
- An explanation of what happened in financial markets, the housing market, commercial property markets, and mortgage backed securities, and their roles in the financial crisis.
- An analysis of public policy responses and recommendations for future policies to improve the financial system – including new approaches for operating within a shrinking financial system; responding to a shift in housing and financial policies; and approaches for stabilizing commercial real estate markets.
- An explanation of the long term impacts on the residential housing sector, residential mortgage securitization, the commercial property sector, and commercial real estate finance.
Downs offers a look at four different scenarios for moving beyond the current financial crisis:
Scenario one: weak U.S. recession, speedy return of credit availability by late 2009 – likelihood of occurring, 15 percent.
Scenario two: strong U.S. recession in 2009, continued lack of real estate credit availability until 2010 – likelihood, 65 percent.
Scenario three: serious U.S. recession, collapse of the dollar, higher interest rates and a prolonged recession through 2010 – likelihood, 8 percent.
Scenario four: two- to three-year recession, massive federal spending, inflationary pressures, high interest rates – likelihood, 12 percent.
“There will be no return to the easy availability of financial credit for real estate during most or all of 2009,” Downs writes. “Only in 2010 and beyond will such a return be possible, though certainly not assured. That situation is consistent with the likelihood of the 2008-2009 American recession lasting well into 2010.”
The capital markets will not stabilize until confidence can be restored among capital suppliers – providers of both equity and debt capital – in the availability of reliable information on the true market value of real estate securities and real estate properties, Downs notes. He lists four ingredients to restore confidence: 1) the passage of time (“capital supplies must go through a period in which the frequency of write-downs and losses by those who create securities fades away”); 2) the steady improvement of space market conditions over a period of time long enough to provide higher profits to property operators; 3) a favorable comparison of real estate to other asset classes such as stocks and bonds; and 4) a downward adjustment of property prices to reflect the new investment and economic realities.
From these observations, Downs concludes that:
- The credit crunch will not end quickly, but will take at least one more year and perhaps up to three more years to disappear;
- Real estate capital markets will gradually improve as investors become impatient with low yields on other assets and as more property owners accept the need to give investors higher returns; and
- The recovery of real estate capital markets will depend in part upon how well the non-real estate investment trust part of the broader stock market fares: the better it does, the longer it will take for capital to come back to real estate.
Real Estate and the Financial Crisis is the second book authored by Downs that has been published by ULI. The first, Niagara of Capital, explored the lending frenzy prior to the credit market collapse. Downs, a longtime ULI member, is a former ULI trustee and a former academic fellow for the Institute. He has served on numerous ULI product councils and is a frequent speaker at ULI meetings. Downs has served as a consultant to many of the nation’s largest corporations, major developers, and government agencies at all levels, including agencies at The White House. He has a PhD in economics from Stanford University and is a widely published author.