RICS: Investment Cash Returns to Commercial Property

Edited: Jennifer Brenner
Source: RICS

Commercial property transactions rose across the majority of the globe with Brazil and China leading the way. With generally low interest rates and relatively high yields, investors have returned to commercial property. The net balance of surveyors reporting a rise in transactions in Brazil rose from 29 percent to 61 percent in the fourth quarter while the net balance in China edged up to 58 percent from 47 percent.

By way of contrasts, more surveyors again reported a drop in activity in the US. Occupier demand has also been most visible across the emerging economies with lettings activity picking up most in Latin America, emerging Europe and most of Asia.

The UK property recovery was led by the London office market, with the amount of available space declining for the first time in two years. However, elsewhere in the UK and across 90 percent of the globe, the amount of available space continued to rise. There were some notable exceptions. Brazil, Peru, Venezuela, Austria, Hong Kong and Ghana are all witnessing mild declines.

Surveyors are confident that the emerging economies, particularly in Latin America and Asia, will continue to lead the property recovery into the first quarter of 2010 but concerns persist over the outlook for some of the more developed real estate markets. Surveyors generally remain downbeat on the US, Japan, Germany, Italy and the United Arab Emirates.

RICS chief economist Simon Rubinsohn said: "The latest Global Commercial Property Survey demonstrates in the clearest possible terms that it is emerging real estate markets where sentiment has turned around most significantly. Crucially, the improvement in investor appetite is being accompanied by a firmer tone to the rental market. This is key to ensuring that the recovery proves sustainable."

"The strength of the results contained in the survey for Latin America and Asia are a reflection of the unfolding economic recovery with many of the more developed markets likely to be hampered by the challenges resulting from the ballooning of public sector debt and need of the authorities to gradually exit from emergency monetary conditions."

Commenting on the report, Ong See Lian, Vice President of RICS and Chairman of RICS Asia said: "Clearly the report confirms investors' confidence in the Asia market, in particular China. Asia will lead the world in its economic recovery and the improvement in investors' confidence will augur well for the property market in Asia."

Henry Li, Chairman of RICS China commented on the Chinese market: "The more positive sentiment towards the occupier market has been evident across a wider number of real estate markets, in particular China. The RICS Global Commercial Property Survey Q4 2009 reflects the investor transactions are now rising with China topping the statistics in terms of an investment led property recovery."

Focusing on local issues, David Faulkner, RICS Hong Kong Chairman said: "The positive sentiment towards both the investor and occupier markets in Hong Kong has seen both capital values and rents increasing whilst yields remain at record low levels. With no signs of an imminent rise in interest rates, yields are expected to remain stable with any increase in rents being reflected in higher capital values in the short term."