Written By: Bruce A. Kellogg, MAI, FRICS
The weather was chilly in Miami during the February 24-25, 2010, NCREIF Conference, but, while some of the news was warming, one had the feeling that forecasts for the real estate market may be a few degrees below what had been expected as well. NCREIF, the National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries, is an association of pension fund representatives and those who advise and service them in the course of business. Some of the biggest names in the industry are present, and their representatives are always ready to roll up their sleeves to complete the business of their respective committees that ultimately benefits real estate in numerous ways.
As noted, the committees were busy, but there were numerous opportunities to listen to experienced experts during the conference in general sessions as well. One of the first related to NCREIF’s Real Estate Information Standards (REIS), which develops standards to assist its members and the industry to make prudent decisions about their investments. Tim Schlitzer of MASS PRIM gave us an interesting analogy for the current real estate market compared to what had been experienced about 20 years ago. To paraphrase: The crash in ’91 was equivalent to a one-car auto crash, with the driver pulled to safety. This was mostly a real estate matter, and it took 4 to 6 years to adjust. The crash in ’08 was more like a 50-car pile-up in a snow storm, with much collateral damage. While not pleasant to read, it does graphically articulate what we have all been feeling.
The next general session related to what the data is telling us at year-end 2009:
- Doug Poutasse, CEO, who will soon be retiring from this position, led off with some impressive details relating to NCREIF’s efforts to gather data for its NCREIF Property Index (NPI), used by most major real estate investors. He stated that nearly 80% of all property investments were appraised in all four quarters during the year, a tribute to the attention given to current and accurate data and the respect for the appraisals that were completed both internally and externally.
- Bob White, Principal and Founder of Real Capital Analytics, weighed in with perhaps the most optimistic assessment of the market by stating that there are signs of encouragement in the capital markets based on transaction data. He illustrated this by noting recent activities for international investments and within the REITs and CMBS arena. An example was cited that international equity is purchasing distressed properties as they can find good deals, particularly in the U.S.
Another session of note was within the Valuation Committee and it focused on market analysis and the employment of data found therein. PwC ‘s Rick Wincott and Stephanie Dubicki led off the discussion with a David Letterman-like list of the “Top 10 Stupid DCF Highlights of 2009.” Due to space constraints, let’s focus on the Top 3: Grow the distressed Tenant Improvement allowance forever, Load a hyper or distressed cap rate to the reversionary cap rate in the stabilized year and - #1 – Use unsupported rent growth assumptions. The point being made, of course, stresses the need for the best market analysis possible when completing a study or appraisal of a property. Utilizing the appropriate tools without the best input will result in inaccurate conclusions or “Garbage In, Garbage Out,” as we’ve all heard before!
The next Valuation Committee session, led by Ray Cirz of Integra Realty Resources, provided input on actual experiences with assets over the past and into the present. Some of the takeaways are as follows:
- Ted Anglyn, President of Anglyn Property Advisors, has been working in South Florida and Latin America over the recent past and noted that a strength in this real estate market stems from the new Panama Canal development, impacting distribution centers and small-tenant office buildings.
- Alan Lester, President of Project Solutions in Miami, provided a sage thought about data sources: It is important to talk to the shoeshine guy if you want to know what is really happening! The point here is to keep your ear to the ground and pick up data from multiple sources during a period when data is not readily available. The caveat, however, is to ensure reliability of data at all times, which the shoeshine guy may not always provide! (No offense intended!)
- Katie Scott, of US Equities in Chicago, has had great experience with two of the most prominent multi-use buildings in the country, with both located in her home town: the John Hancock and Willis Tower buildings. She spoke of the process for good and bad assets in good and bad markets. Some of her conclusions were that a bad asset in a good market should be sold, a good asset in a bad market should be purchased and even upgraded, and a bad asset in a bad market should be bulldozed! Of course, we are all familiar with good assets in a good market, as this was the norm throughout the recently ended cycle. Obviously, this resulted in upward-spiraling sales prices that unfortunately came crashing down.

Panel moderator Ray Cirz of Integra Realty Resources, Alan Lester of Project Solutions, and Ted Anglyn of Anglyn Property Advisors (left to right) as they prepare to speak to the Valuation Committee.
Katie Scott of US Equities, Chuck Dannis of Crosson Dannis, Alan Lester and
John Hart of Carlton Fields following the panel discussion at the Valuation
Committee.
The next general session, moderated by Hans Nordby of PPR, covered the local market of South Florida. He pointed out the tremendous amount of business interaction with Latin America and referred to a recent comment he overheard that people like Miami because it is “so close to the U.S!”
- Tom Crocker, of Crocker REIT and Crocker Partners, discussed the continuing interest in South Florida, especially from those in the Northeast, where the prices are still more attractive in Broward and Dade Counties compared to New York City and the surrounding suburbs.
- Manuel de Zarraga of Holliday Fenoglio Fowler added that the Latin American community in South Florida typically invests long-term and seeks being debt-free. Also, while the immigration issue is subject to much controversy elsewhere in the U.S., it is not a major concern in South Florida. In addition, this may be a haven for displaced Haitians at some point.
On a personal note, I reconnected with one of my first mentors /employers while at the conference, whom I had not seen for at least 30 years (although we had spoken several times over the years). Jim Kafes hired me to join Miller & Kafes in Ft. Lee, NJ in 1974 and gave me a tremendous amount of knowledge that I’ve built upon since. I just have to say that it was a great moment for me to see him again and I wish him well in his new position with NPV Advisors.
Bruce the Blogger celebrates his reunion with a great mentor and former employer,
Jim Kafes.
The NCREIF Conference is always a great experience of learning, participating, doing some business and renewing / developing friendships. On behalf of ARGUS Software, I think I accomplished all my objectives.